CPI vs. the Fed: Why Inflation Is the Real Constraint
Headline CPI hit a three-year high while real wages turned negative. Why inflation, not the Fed, is the real constraint on capital costs and deal underwriting now.
America’s Structural Long Position in Oil: Rethinking the Oil-Price Shock
The US produces 13.6M barrels/day – production revenue now exceeds the entire household energy burden. Why higher oil may hurt America far less than higher mortgage rates.
The Consumer Backdrop Is Stronger Than Headlines Suggest (Podcast)
Markets rarely give perfect clarity. Richard Consul on why the consumer backdrop remains strong – 4.2% unemployment, low continuing claims, real wage growth – despite oil and geopolitics.
Credit Market Update – March 2026
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Be a Street Economist: Reading the Economy in Real Time (Podcast)
Stop waiting for economic reports. Richard Consul on being a “street economist” – using everyday observations as real-time economic signals before the data catches up.
Why Productivity and CapEx Are Key to 2026 US Growth
From wheat to AI: surging capital investment in AI-adjacent equipment, data centers, and on-shoring is driving sustainable productivity gains – a regime change for 2026 US growth.
The K‑Shaped Economy: AI and the New Divide
Artificial intelligence is reshaping America’s economy – boosting productivity while deepening inequality. As the K‑Shaped Economy widens the gap between opportunity and exclusion, Bankers Edge Advisory explores how businesses and policymakers can adapt through smarter capital strategy, workforce reskilling, and inclusive innovation.
Student Loan Delinquencies Surge, but U.S. Credit Market Stays Strong
Student loan delinquencies have surged to 12.9% as pandemic-era payment freezes end, but the overall credit market remains steady. Mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards – making up almost 90% of household debt – have seen only minor changes in delinquency rates. At Bankers Edge Advisory, we help companies navigate beyond the headlines to connect with investors who understand the real story behind today’s consumer credit trends.
Consumer Weakness? Not So Fast.
Despite headlines suggesting consumer weakness, the fundamentals tell a different story – strong employment, rising wages, healthy debt levels, and moderating delinquencies all point to resilience. At Bankers Edge, we help consumer and retail companies raise capital by connecting them with investors who see beyond short-term noise and focus on long-term opportunity.
2025 Credit Market Outlook
The team at Bankers Edge shares perspectives on their outlook for Credit Markets in 2025.