CPI vs. the Fed: Why Inflation Is the Real Constraint
Headline CPI hit a three-year high while real wages turned negative. Why inflation, not the Fed, is the real constraint on capital costs and deal underwriting now.
Credit Market Update – May 2026
The biggest question heading into the second half of 2026 isn’t whether the economy is slowing, it’s whether inflation will stay stubborn enough to keep the Fed on hold. With AI-driven investment reshaping the growth outlook and dealmakers remaining active, the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
America’s Structural Long Position in Oil: Rethinking the Oil-Price Shock
The US produces 13.6M barrels/day – production revenue now exceeds the entire household energy burden. Why higher oil may hurt America far less than higher mortgage rates.
Credit Market Update – April 2026
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Oil Up 21.3% in a Month: What It Means for Cost of Capital
Energy commodities jumped 21.3% in a single month – the biggest spike since 2022. Core CPI moved only 0.2%. What the oil shock means for cost of capital, lender appetite, and deal structuring.
Credit Market Update – March 2026
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
The $5 Trillion Small Business Ownership Transfer: A Lower Middle Market Opportunity
By 2035, ~6 million boomer-owned US businesses face ownership transitions – up to $5 trillion in enterprise value. Independent sponsors and structured capital will decide how it converts.
Credit Market Update – February 2026
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Credit Market Update – January 2026
U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid – S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied – supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.
Why Productivity and CapEx Are Key to 2026 US Growth
From wheat to AI: surging capital investment in AI-adjacent equipment, data centers, and on-shoring is driving sustainable productivity gains – a regime change for 2026 US growth.