CPI vs. the Fed: Why Inflation Is the Real Constraint
Headline CPI hit a three-year high while real wages turned negative. Why inflation, not the Fed, is the real constraint on capital costs and deal underwriting now.
Headline CPI hit a three-year high while real wages turned negative. Why inflation, not the Fed, is the real constraint on capital costs and deal underwriting now.
The biggest question heading into the second half of 2026 isn’t whether the economy is slowing, it’s whether inflation will stay stubborn enough to keep the Fed on hold. With AI-driven investment reshaping the growth outlook and dealmakers remaining active, the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Bankers Edge Advisory is back in Las Vegas from April 27-29 for ACG DealMAX.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Bankers Edge Advisory is attending SBIA’s Private Equity Conference in Nashville on 19-20th February.
U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid – S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied – supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.
Bankers Edge Advisory is attending SBIA’s Private Equity Conference in Nashville on 19-20th February.
U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid – S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied – supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.