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Credit Market Update – December 2025

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U.S. Credit Markets Demonstrate Resilience as Growth Picks Up and Policy Eases:

  • Q3 2025 GDP grew 4.3%driven by consumer spending and narrowing trade deficit. Growth remains constructive into 2026, supported by productivity gains and trade policy shifts toward domestic production.
  • Unemployment stable at 4.4% in December, down from 4.6% in November, while flat wage growth at 0.0%.
  • Corporate fundamentals are solid having S&P 500 margins at 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, high-yield spreads at 2.8%. BB-rated bonds now comprise ~50% of index, up from 30% pre-crisis.
  • Banking strength persists with Tier-1 capital at 14.1%, loan-to-deposit at 71.8%, unlocking nearly $1 trillion in capacity. Lender sentiment at 42.5% bullish.​

Bottom Line

Growth remains positive yet cautious, inflation is contained, and policy stays accommodative — creating a constructive backdrop for disciplined capital deployment in 2026.

👉 Read our latest U.S. Credit Report for full insights and updates.

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  • Categories: Credit Market Outlook
  • Tags: Capital Raising, Credit Market, Market Outlook, Private Credit
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Credit Market Update – December 2025

U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid—S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied—supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.

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January 20, 2026

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Meet Mitch Vermet,

CFA, CAIA
Managing Director
Our other Managing Director, Mitch Vermet, CFA, CAIA, has a decade of experience in institutional asset management and investment banking. He has served as an integral asset within close-knit investment teams responsible for building portfolios and allocating tactical assets for over $30 billion in institutional capital.
Since earning a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan and an MA in Management from the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, Mr. Vermet has demonstrated mastery in helping clients manage and structure their balance sheets with strategic asset liability management solutions. He has built a reputation for helping clients strategically manage risk while capitalizing on opportunities across unique macroeconomic scenarios, lending valuable expertise and foresight to clients.  

Mr. Vermet is a member of the CFA Institute and CAIA Association. He is also a Registered Representative of BA Securities, LLC, and a member of FINRA and SIPC.

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Meet Richard Consul,

CFA
Managing Director
Richard Consul, CFA, brings unmatched expertise and experience as one of our Managing Directors. Mr. Consul has over 20 years of domestic and international secondary market expertise as a Senior Portfolio Manager and Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities Strategist.
Since earning a BBA in Finance and an MSE in Financial Engineering from the University of Michigan, Mr. Consul has served as a dedicated business partner to many corporate, banking, and insurance clients. He has built a reputation for helping clients solve and overcome various complex liquidity, risk management, ALM, and secondary market challenges. 
Mr. Consul has lent his expertise to countless financial publications and platforms, including Asset TV, a renowned video research platform for investment professionals. He is a member of the CFA Institute and has received certifications in Securities Industry Essentials (SIE), Series 82, and Series 63 through FINRA.
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