The biggest question heading into the second half of 2026 isn’t whether the economy is slowing, it’s whether inflation will stay stubborn enough to keep the Fed on hold. With AI-driven investment reshaping the growth outlook and dealmakers remaining active, the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Bankers Edge Advisory is back in Las Vegas from April 27-29 for ACG DealMAX.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently tracking ~3.7% for Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer spending and a reduced trade deficit. Inflation is easing, and trade policies are boosting domestic production and import substitution.
Bankers Edge Advisory is attending SBIA’s Private Equity Conference in Nashville on 19-20th February.
U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid – S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied – supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.
Bankers Edge Advisory is attending SBIA’s Private Equity Conference in Nashville on 19-20th February.
U.S. credit markets remain constructive into year-end, with Q3 GDP up 4.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending and stronger net exports. The Fed is holding rates at 3.9% while signaling gradual cuts and renewed balance-sheet support, adding liquidity. Corporate and bank fundamentals are solid – S&P 500 margins near 69.8%, business delinquencies at 1.3%, and Tier‑1 capital at 14.1% with significant lending capacity implied – supporting a favorable backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.
U.S. growth remained modest in late 2025 following a solid 3.8% Q2 rebound, as inflation eased to 3.0% and the Fed funds rate moved to 3.5%. While labor market tightness is abating with job openings at 7.2 million, corporate health remains resilient with historically low business loan delinquencies of 1.3%. High-yield spreads have tightened to 2.9%, and robust bank capital buffers of 14.1% continue to provide ample liquidity for steady expansion. The outlook into 2026 remains constructive, supported by a healthy M&A environment and a measured pivot toward lower rates.
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Mr. Vermet is a member of the CFA Institute and CAIA Association. He is also a Registered Representative of BA Securities, LLC, and a member of FINRA and SIPC.
