U.S. economy maintains resilient momentum into late 2025 with moderating growth, easing policy, and ample liquidity.
- Q2 2025 GDP was revised up to 3.8% on strong consumer and investment activity, with growth expected to ease to 2% by year-end—a temporary moderation ahead of expected 2026 support from the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB).
- The Fed has cut rates to 3.50–3.75% and may ease further by up to 100 bps as it shifts from tightening to renewed liquidity support. Unemployment has ticked up to ~4.6%, signaling a cooling in labor conditions.
- Capital markets remain firm: global private credit exceeds $2.6T, M&A is rebounding across tech, healthcare, and infrastructure, and financing conditions are improving.
Bottom Line
Growth is slowing but stable, inflation is contained, and monetary policy is turning supportive—creating a constructive backdrop for selective capital deployment into 2026.
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