U.S. economy maintains solid momentum through Q3 2025 with steady expansion and deepening liquidity.
- Growth: Q2 GDP +3.8% (consumer spending/business investment driven). Inflation eased to 3.0%; Fed cut rates to 4.1%.
- Jobs/Consumers: Unemployment near 4.1%. Household balance sheets healthy (delinquencies 2.8%, debt service 11.3%).
- Credit/Corporates: Business delinquencies very low (1.3%). HY spreads widened modestly to 3.2%, yet remain below historical stress levels. Credit quality improving (50% BB-rated). Banks well-capitalized (Tier-1 14.1%).
- Private Markets: Global private credit continues expansion; direct lending remains robust. M&A moderated to $188B in October following September’s $232B rebound, with focus on larger strategic deals ($10B+).
Bottom Line
Constructive outlook into year-end: strong fundamentals, ample liquidity, and policy flexibility support disciplined growth and measured risk-taking.
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